PENDER COUNTY, N.C. — Pender County Schools (PCS) has released findings from the 2023-24 Land Use Study and Membership Forecast study conducted by Numerix LLC from December 2023 through March 2024.
The report indicates strong growth in PCS membership over the last several years, with an average increase of about 335 K-13 students (3.49%) per year from 2018-19 through 2023-24. Membership gains in 2021-22 and 2022-23 helped offset negative impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating a return to previous growth trends.
Supporting these trends, the general population in Pender County has significantly increased since 2020 and is expected to continue growing. Residential development along the US 17 corridor and anticipated large-scale developments in the southern part of the county further point to continued growth in PCS.
The 2023-24 Ten-Year PCS Membership Forecast, finalized on April 8, 2024, predicts an average annual growth rate of 3.60% over the next decade if current trends persist. Expected K-13 membership in five years (2028-29) is projected to exceed 13,000 and nearly 15,500 in ten years (2033-34), with an average annual K-13 growth of 460 PCS students per year.
The purpose of the ten-year membership forecast is to provide PCS leadership with information to explore building plans that ensure adequate capacity for school crowding and anticipate future capacity needs.
PCS MEMBERSHIP FORECAST REPORT
PCS FORECAST
2023-24 LAND USE STUDEY AND MEMBERSHIP FORECAST REPORT PRESENTATION